Sunday, 15 May 2022
Tuesday, 21 December 2021
Friday, 10 September 2021
The question I am often asked is. "Why is Michael's Bookshop in Ramsgate still closed?"
The answer, so far, is. "The risk of killing us and our customers remains too high."
With the narrow passageways, the impossibility of cleaning all 30,000 books on the shelves, I think it fair to say that we, the people who work here, that is, would definitely catch coronavirus.
The main thing that I look at, when updating this information, is how likely reopening the bookshop would kill us and our customers.
Back in March 2021 when I last did the basic research the figures were at least 10 times worse, so the vaccines have made a huge difference.
The crude mortality rate for influenza is about 1 in 6,500
The other main figure is, how likely are you to get infected.
So if like me, you are in the 50 to 69 age group, in any given week you have about a 1 in 200 chance of catching it. Although I guess this isn't strictly true as the figures are for testing positive.
This doesn't actually translate into. if you are between 60 and 69, in any week, at the moment, you have a 1 in 200 chance of getting coronavirus and 1 in 200 chance of death if you get it, but it will do as close enough for me.
I think that if you are fairly carful vaccinated, mask, hand washing, avoiding crowded indoor places, then in your 60s you have a better that 1 in a 1,000 chance of dying of coronavirus this year. The figure for unvaccinated people in their 60s is too low how to make make.my difference to the vaccinated. However I think the crude approximation for an unvaccinated person dying of coronavirus this year is about 150 to 1
Here in the UK a very big factor that gets missed from the figures is the massive UK death rate so far compared to most other countries. By this I mean that many of the people most likely to die of coronavirus have already done so. Despite this the UK death rate is still very high compared to most other countries.
The results of some big studies in America link show those who were unvaccinated were 4.5 times more likely than the fully vaccinated to get infected, over 10 times more likely to be hospitalized and 11 times more likely to die, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
It doesn't look as though there will be any move in the direction to protect shop workers better, compulsory masks or even vaccination passports, which were being talked about for non-essential shops seem to be on hold.
Another update published today 13th September.
Out of more than 51,000 Covid deaths in England between January and July 2021, only 256 occurred after two doses.
To put this another way the crude statistic is you were 200 times more likely to die of coronavirus if you hadn't been vaccinated during that period link
Of course less people were vaccinated then and those who were were more likely to die.
Trying to predict where we are likely to go this year compared to last year isn't so encouraging
The other COBR figures published about now, 15th September 2021 are
There are lots of different and conflicting figures here
This post is a draft in progress, that should eventually make it easier to update the bookshop website.
Initial indicators for the boosterjab are looking good link
Once again travel is the biggest problem link
The situation with pregnancy Link
Covid third leading cause of death in England in August
Covid-19 was the third leading cause of death in England in August, up from the ninth leading cause in July, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says.
This is the highest ranking for Covid since March, when it was also the third leading cause of death.
In Wales, the disease was the seventh leading cause of death in August, up from 22nd place in July and the highest ranking since March.
Provisional figures from the ONS show that in August 2021 there were 40,460 deaths registered in England and 2,614 in Wales, both higher than the five-year (2015 to 2019) August average (10% and 5% higher, respectively).
The rate of deaths due to Covid was significantly higher in both England and Wales in August 2021 compared to the previous month. BBC Link
Merck says antiviral pill cuts COVID deaths in half
The pharmaceutical company said the drug - molnupiravir - reduced COVID hospitalisations and deaths by 50% in people recently infected with the virus.
If cleared, Merck's pill would be the first shown to treat COVID, a potentially major advance in efforts to fight the pandemic.
The study results were released by the company and have not yet been peer reviewed.
However, an independent group of medical advisers monitoring the trial recommended stopping it early because the interim results were so strong.
Merck and its partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics said early results showed patients who received the drug within five days of displaying COVID symptoms had half the rate of hospitalisation and death as those who received a placebo.
The study tracked 775 adults with mild-to-moderate COVID who were considered higher risk for severe disease due to health problems such as obesity, diabetes or heart disease.
Shop workers most likely to catch COVID in Ireland – data
Friday, 19 March 2021
Back around the end of WW2 there was a saying something along the lines of:- That WW2 and all subsequent wars would be won by the side that had the best German scientists. I have just watched a situation (Stopping the Oxford AstraZeneca jab because they couldn’t work out the risk equation relating to morality and possible side effects) where German politicians killed a lot of German people because either their maths was bad, they couldn't understand scientists, well I don't really know, but I am going to work at it here like a hole in a tooth.
In the world of particle physics there is stuff that you can't understand because you aren't intelligent enough and stuff you can't understand because you're human. In the world of particle physics it is easy to take unbelievers away and show them the "double slit experiment"
Picture from the Wikipedia article
Here on the internet you can't do this, so I had to find another way to explain this business of there being some things you can't understand because you are human.
1 Light travels at the speed of light
2 Time doesn't occur for light, photons or light waves do not experience time because they are traveling at the speed of light.
3 Light either observed as waves or particles can be polarised and this state of polarisation can be observed.
It therefore follows that when light is polarised it has always been polarised because it doesn't experience time.
So the light that travelled from the sun and passed through your polaroid sunglasses was polarised 8 minutes and 20 seconds before it reached your sunglasses i.e. when it left the sun.
You can't understand this because you are human, or perhaps you can, psychologists often call this the Dunning–Kruger effect.
I made a stupid maths mistake yesterday, I saw one of those daft things on Facebook
What fascinated me was the MS Windows 10 calculator made the same stupid mistake that I did, failed to apply the BODMAS rule and came up with 4 instead of 104.
The calculator on my android phone came up with the right answer.
When the pandemic first started I became aware of an issue between the two types of mind, politicians and journalists tend to have a humanities background. With the pandemic the people who hold the information are the scientists who mostly don't. Here in the UK and now in Europe I'm coming to the conclusion that a breakdown in communication between these two groups of academics is killing as many people as the virus. There is an aside to this which is to do with mathematics and how the part of the brain that tends towards panic and stress, seems to also so be to do with mathematics. So a perfectly ordinary mathematical question if loaded in terms of the figures that relate to virus mortality, suddenly becomes impossible for ordinary intelligent people.
Most of my family and a lot of my friends have scientific backgrounds and I tried the simple question, what is 20% of 20% of 25, first loaded with pandemic mortality figures and then as an ordinary question, I can only say, try this on your friends.
My coronavirus mental mathematical picture looks something like this:-
Here in the UK about 4,000,000 people have tested positive and about 120,000 people have died. If you knock the zeros off that’s 12 in 400 or 3 in 100. To put it another way for about every 30 people who tested positive 1 died of coronavirus.
If the vaccine is 80% effective that means before the vaccine 10 people would die and after it only 2, or to look it another way instead of 1 in 30 about 1 in 250.
The younger you are the less likely you are to die and of course older not so good, the 1 in 30 applies to people around 55 years old, if you are 65 it’s about 1 in 20 and 45 about 1 in 100. Over 80 it’s about 1 in 5 and under 30 about 1 in a 1,000.
Looking at todays figures:- "The UK has recorded a further 4802 coronavirus cases and 101 deaths in the last 24-hour period, government data shows." you don't have to be a genius to approximate 100 in 5,000 or 1 in 50 which is a lot better than 1 in 30. Most likely both lockdown and vaccines are bringing the overall case rate down and the vaccine is bringing the mortality rate compared to the positive test rate down. so your chances of dying of coronavirus are nearly half what they were before the vaccine rollout and getting better all the time. Best of all we have less than 10% of new daily cases compared to the peak. so what is 10% of 50%?
I don't really know how to put this across to the important people influencing how the pandemic is killing people. These important people are mostly journalists and politicians. I think there will also be some lawyers involved, but mostly in The fallout and the blame game afterwards. The difficulty is to try to get them to understand some very simple sums now and save some lives. so I am aiming this mostly at people who did history art and music and excelled in English but just got through with their maths. The people who did the maths and sciences I think just make the assumption that when most people look at a simple sum their mind comes up immediately with some sort of approximation of the answer.
Without vaccines I suppose a reasonable guess is the pandemic would have eventually killed about 1 in 50 people and made about another 1 in 50 very ill, Whether the 1 in a 1,000,000 chance of a person dying of a blood clot because they have had the vaccine can ever be calculated is difficult to say. What is certain is that a large number of people who didn't get the vaccine because of politicians and journalists, not being able to understand the scientists, do the sums or whatever that was all about, well they will die.
I am adding an update here because of the publication of Public Health England vaccine
For anyone having difficulty understanding the report here is a simple explanation.
1 There is very little difference in effectiveness between the Pfizer and the Oxford jab.
2 This data is about over 80s 2 weeks after their first jab.
3 An unvaccinated group of 100,000 3% 300 get symptomatic covid 45 go to hospital and 40 die.
4 A vaccinated group of 100,000 60% protection 120 get symptomatic covid 10 go to hospital 7 die.
I should stress here that with every day that passes after the vaccination the situation improves.
A further update 21.03.2021 when I first posted this I intended to link it to several places within social media and the first one was Quantum Physics News Facebook group
1,000 hits here over 150 comments there after 2 days was enough to manage for the time being.
Further update 30th March. 234 Germans died of coronavirus today Germany reported 13,110 new cases and the German Government suspended use of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in the under-60s over concerns about rare blood clots. There have been 31 unusual blood clots among the 2.7 million vaccine shots given in Germany. It's not really possible to calculate if the number of rare blood clots would have been larger or smaller if people hadn't had the vaccine'
This post is primarily about understanding and communication between scientists and everyone else, especially politicians and the media. Highlighted with science that scientists can't understand, although some claimed to understand something.
For the science in this I could add what happens if if you polarize light and it travels a distance and you polarize again. Obviously the light itself is not experiencing time but something is being done sequentially in a place that has no time. This would seem to suggest that events happening sequentially are different two events happening within the dimension of time.
10.04.2021 uk population 67.6 million coronavirus deaths 127 thousand so about 1 in 500 of the entire population dead. 67,700,000 to 127,000, well that would be 13,000 x 500 = 6,500,000 5x13=65
Thursday, 24 December 2020
Today, Christmas Eve 2020 I bought the slowhump.com domain name from 123 for about £20 set it up so I could publish to it and about an hour later it works.
Today it’s the problem of gravity, this problem defeated people like Einstein so for the purposes of this please don’t Google “dunning–kruger effect” here we go.
Gravity explained without any maths – proof – mundane stuff like that, for ordinary people.
The universe is expanding. Everything is expanding, you the ruler you measure things with, earth, planets, stars, black holes and stuff. This was caused by an explosion called the “Big Bang”
Gravity is caused by the amount everything is expanding accelerating, G-force if you like, this should be seen as the rate of acceleration, like a sports car, plane or rocket accelerating. The size everything can reach has no limit, but you can’t measure this because you and your ruler and the atoms you and your ruler are expanding at the same rate.
Saturday, 26 January 2019
Human beings are not able to understand exactly what happens at the quantum level, this isn't a matter of an individual's or a group's intelligence, but it is an issue that is related to how human beings process and receive information in an ordinary mechanical newtonian world and how the senses are used.
In most cases we get our information about what is going on in mechanical or scientific terms, either by seeing something or by hearing something. If the thing we are observing is too small, to far away to quiet, then we have developed devices to overcome this.
We can look at very small things with microscopes, far way things with telescopes, get a hearing aid and so on.
When we go to look at something, we can shine a torch - a stream of protons pointed at the thing, the protons (light) land on the thing, some of the light bounces back and reaches our eyes where a transducer processes the light into electrons which do things we don't yet understand in the electrochemical computer we call our brain.
With electrons, trying to look at them with a photon, trying to determine what they are like, involves throwing photons and other electrons at them. This means there is a strong element of, trying to find out something about a brick by throwing tennis balls and other bricks at it and mapping where any that come back land.
An issue here is that there is both positive and negative charge and to understand electronics to the point where you can make useful things by connecting electronic components together, you have to be able to consider electrons in their own way way.
Simplistically; in an atom:-
An extra electron; causes a negative electric charge.
A missing electron in an atom; causes a positive charge.
The spinning of electrons in atoms cause a magnetic field.
Changing the the energy level of an electron in an atom causes it to give off a photo.
These things work the other way around.
Brushing your hair scrapes some of the electrons of the surface of the hairs and causes a positive charge. So it stands on end, sparks or fails to do anything much.
When a photon is absorbed by an electron it changes the electron's energy level.
Doing the same thing to a lot of electrons related to atoms in one area produces a measurable effect.
Next up should be a diagram/drawing of an atom.
Whole atoms are very small, you would get about a million lined up across the thickness of a human hair. It's a bit hard to visualise a million, there are about a million seconds in twelve days, so it could be time to count up to a million slowly.
If the nucleolus of an atom was about the size of an egg then the edge of the atom would be about a mile away.
If this atom had 15 electrons and 15 protons then it would be phosphorus
If this atom had 13 electrons and 13 protons then it would be aluminium
14 is the atomic number of silicon. Nothing else has 14.
In electronics situations develop where some silicone atoms have either 13 or 15 electrons and stay silicon.
Wednesday, 23 January 2019
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