Friday, 10 September 2021

Coronavirus gambling with lives and reopening the bookshop

The question I am often asked is. "Why is Michael's Bookshop in Ramsgate still closed?"

The answer, so far, is. "The risk of killing us and our customers remains too high."

With the narrow passageways, the impossibility of cleaning all 30,000 books on the shelves, I think it fair to say that we, the people who work here, that is, would definitely catch coronavirus.

The main thing that I look at, when updating this information, is how likely reopening the bookshop would kill us and our customers. 

So for me and a lot of my customers who fall into the 60-69 age group and have been double vaccinated, the chance of death if we were to contract Coronavirus, based on the most recent figures is 1 in 200.

Back in March 2021 when I last did the basic research the figures were at least 10 times worse, so the vaccines have made a huge difference.  

The crude mortality rate for influenza is about 1 in 6,500

The other main figure is, how likely are you to get infected.

So if like me, you are in the 50 to 69 age group, in any given week you have about a 1 in 200 chance of catching it. Although I guess this isn't strictly true as the figures are for testing positive.

This doesn't actually translate into. if you are between 60 and 69, in any week, at the moment, you have a 1 in 200 chance of getting coronavirus and 1 in 200 chance of death if you get it, but it will do as close enough for me.

I think that if you are fairly carful vaccinated, mask, hand washing, avoiding crowded indoor places, then in your 60s you have a better that 1 in a 1,000 chance of dying of coronavirus this year. The figure for unvaccinated people in their 60s is too low how to make difference to the vaccinated. However I think the crude approximation for an unvaccinated person dying of coronavirus this year is about 150 to 1

Here in the UK a very big factor that gets missed from the figures is the massive UK death rate so far compared to most other countries. By this I mean that many of the people most likely to die of coronavirus have already done so. Despite this the UK death rate is still very high compared to most other countries.   

The results of some big studies in America link show those who were unvaccinated were 4.5 times more likely than the fully vaccinated to get infected, over 10 times more likely to be hospitalized and 11 times more likely to die, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

It doesn't look as though there will be any move in the direction to protect shop workers better, compulsory masks or even vaccination passports, which were being talked about for non-essential shops seem to be on hold. 

Another update published today 13th September.

Out of more than 51,000 Covid deaths in England between January and July 2021, only 256 occurred after two doses.

To put this another way the crude statistic is you were 200 times more likely to die of coronavirus if you hadn't been vaccinated during that period link

Of course less people were vaccinated then and those who were were more likely to die.

Trying to predict where we are likely to go this year compared to last year isn't so encouraging 

The other COBR figures published about now, 15th September 2021 are 

These figures are much more encouraging.

There are lots of different and conflicting figures here  

This post is a draft in progress, that should eventually make it easier to update the bookshop website. 

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Coronavirus gambling with lives and reopening the bookshop

The question I am often asked is. "Why is Michael's Bookshop in Ramsgate still closed?" The answer, so far, is. "The risk...